Making virtual species less virtual by reverse engineering of spatiotemporal ecological models

نویسندگان

چکیده

The virtual species (VS) and ecologist (VE) approaches are useful tools that allow testing different methodological aspects of distribution modelling. However, methods used to generate VS so far lack solutions can ensure a high degree biological realism, taking into account spatial temporal variability population densities. We have developed method for generating dynamic reconstruct their living prototypes in realistic way. framework consists fitting spatiotemporal model real abundance data, from over the entire study area spanning whole period, calibrating VS, obtaining VE data by sampling VS. effectiveness approach has been illustrated large-scale long-term bird monitoring, using whinchat Saxicola rubetra as system. evaluated how well ‘true’ system comparing response curves trends between those (i.e. what constitutes ‘truth’) estimated replicated instances data. In addition, we performed sensitivity analysis test varying effort affects accuracy trend estimation. synthetic thoroughly reconstructed monitoring Response generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), fitted these two types showed concordance, indicated 95% confidence intervals coverage probability 87.7%–99.8% (mean 96.9%). accurately calculated (coverage probability: 82.3%). proposed reverse engineering ecological reproduces properties original system, substantially increasing realism simulation results. may further applications evaluating various modelling techniques range dynamics, where real-world particular importance, like conservation invasion biology or climate change impact assessment.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Methods in Ecology and Evolution

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2041-210X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.14176